Effect of devaluationthe natural rubber market analysis
Addtime:2015-08-18 11:27:24 Source:兰溪荣恩铝轮有限公司 Hits:
2015 natural rubber market is destined to extraordinary performance. Adhesive around the entire first half of the new standard event just ended, and ushered in the sharp depreciation of the yuan. Which are highly dependent on imports of natural rubber market is undoubtedly a heavy blow. Event adhesive pre numerous articles we have discussed, this time we will discuss the influence of the natural rubber market in view of the recent devaluation of view.
Event Background: Since the People's Bank of China on August 11 to adjust the RMB against the US dollar in the middle quotation mechanism, the yuan-dollar exchange rate has dropped three consecutive trading days. 13, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar depreciation of 1.11 percent once again, reported 6.4010. Just three days, the yuan central parity has depreciated by nearly 4.66 percent, median price has returned to the level of four years ago.
Devaluation objectively import and export enterprises will have a significant impact. The central bank had already categorically denied devaluation to stimulate exports. It is understood that, with the recovery of the US economy, the emerging economies common currency has depreciated against the US dollar, and the yuan to remain strong, which brought exports to domestic pressure. Recently, the China International Economic and Exchange Center Consulting Research Department noted that the main purpose of the adjustment is to promote market-oriented exchange rate formation mechanism. Depreciation of two percent, three can not have too much stimulation of exports, but there is some help on the stability of the export objective. According downstream from export-oriented enterprises understand, although it will depreciate moderately positive outlet surface RMB exchange rate, but the current global economic downturn, weak end demand, even devaluation, it is difficult to increase orders, favorable export is nominal, this It is the most terrible.
The impact on the adhesive market:
1. devaluation resulting in strong outside the weak dollar plate
Qingdao Bonded Zone Thailand this week marked 20 # volatility rose to $ 1,430 / ton, equivalent to RMB 12,400 yuan / ton, the overall rise 400 yuan / ton, while the dollar adhesive market quotations weeks basically remain at $ 1430-1450 / ton range consolidation, external disk spreads narrowed; and Hujiao shock this week rose to 12,280 yuan / ton, but the devaluation led to higher prices Bonded dollars in contraband, and ultimately makes the situation Hujiao premium narrowed slightly, the overall spread narrowed to less than 100 yuan / ton. Devaluation is the key to strong prices resulted in the bonded area.
2. devaluation, natural rubber price increases are still difficult
2.1 domestic advantage will significantly enhance the import prices rose difficult
Domestic and imported glue glue the overall trend is consistent. RMB devaluation will increase the cost of imports, in the current weak fundamentals, increased costs, the price will be supported. The domestic rubber will have a cost advantage, but also conducive to exports, the competitive advantage of domestic rubber greatly enhanced. Affected imported glue will be more difficult to raise prices.
2.2 more weak downstream demand
July twisting steel tire started in the domestic market dragged down, monitoring data show that the tire company in Shandong Province this month, the average capacity utilization rate of steel tire 69.47%, the chain fell 3.46 percent. In accordance with past tradition, in July to enter the all-steel tires sales season, it is time to ship large number of manufacturers, it should start at a high level, but from this year's statistics, the market performance is not satisfactory. Many agents reaction from the beginning of May, a month is better sales month, stocks have been on the rise. Reflected in the manufacturers point of view, it is a marked decline started this year, it is understood that some manufacturers this year in the domestic market has been opened up impasse, now largely started by exports remained relatively stable. In fact, not only in Shandong Province, the country look, this large tire factory operating rate has also fallen compared to previous years, and stocks remain high. Lower tire business this year shows overall operation of the difficult situation.
The overall impact on natural latex:
Second, the renminbi depreciated beginning of this week, although beneficial to export but for the entire commodity markets, particularly in the import of raw materials led markets greater impact. In the 11th day of redemption only $ 1 6.328 yuan; bulk latex in US Dollars $ 1,050 / ton traded prices, devaluation caused import costs to upgrade nearly 180 yuan / ton, while the next two days the exchange rate continued to fall, the lowest against the US dollar 6.4469 RMB, so that the sources of imports costs continue to rise, up to more than 300 yuan per ton increased cost, which to some extent on imported bottled spot market support a certain price. But if devaluation alone may promote natural latex spot market continued to rebound it? Expressed less optimistic. The main reason lies in the following two aspects:
1. The domestic rubber running low import price formation contain
We can see that at the beginning of the domestic cut open the occasion, by the scarce supply of raw materials to support glue, glue a whole to maintain the high price level, but with the steady tapping of work carried out follow-up, supply of raw materials continue to bang, then glue a few months price Run downturn, leading to tapping rubber farmers actively significantly reduced, and heard most young people go out to work, resulting in areas of intense labor, raw materials output fell significantly, according to forecasts, this year, Hainan producing overall yield or will decline by about 20% . However, according to the price of domestic latex detection, can be seen in the vicinity of the current domestic latex overall cost line running due to sluggish demand led to price increases the rigidity of fatigue, concentration of domestic milk prices continued to slump operation.
We also mentioned earlier the current domestic latex concentrate substantially on the cost line 7300-7500 yuan / ton level run, and the recent devaluation of the import spot market some support, but not its effects continue to maintain domestic prices low, import and domestic bulk spreads continued to remain at 1,000 yuan / ton, and this week it is climbing to 1,500 yuan / ton. It is understood that, as early as the current market downturn, the price will be the main reference guide corporate procurement cost is still generally higher than the domestic prices of imported price 600-800 yuan / ton or more, then some low-end products, the purchase of domestic companies will choose as a concentrated milk raw material, import price advantage of the obvious, once raised the fear shipments more difficult. Therefore, some dealers said the current domestic downturn to a certain contain import prices, import prices dynamics is rather limited.
2. Terminal bleak endless demand for import prices can not form a boost
This year, the market players generally said that small and medium enterprise order products slowed significantly, high density, Fujian and other parts of gloves and footwear small and medium enterprises, because overall orders dropped significantly, resulting in business difficulties, partly shut down production; while some customers in North China reflecting the overall decline in orders for the same period of the previous year by at least 30% Glove Factory, shoe factory closed down a direct result of the procurement of raw materials feeling extremely depressed, continued bearish market fundamentals unable to provide good support.
States not only faced with slowing demand for downstream products companies rigidity, but also will be faced with future costs resulting from devaluation to enhance the overall living environment will be more severe. However, the cost of imports due to the continued depreciation of the RMB spot market prices, although to some extent by the increase in the spot market will support imports, import prices rebounded slightly, its intensity and the duration of the rebound all said they did not optimistic. As the front of the terminal just need to continue to slowdown and sluggish domestic contain concentrated milk imports market appeared difficult to rally round a welcome opportunity. Believes that the current domestic and international supply and demand side can not provide substantial positive cases, natural latex market in the future is still in the bottom of the shock them.